Saw 3D

Run Time: 1 hrs. 31 min.

Rating: R

The Bouw-Man.

Not a whole lot to say about this one.  Seemingly we can expect a new “Saw” movie every time Halloween comes around.  It all began in 2004, and with “Saw 3D” we now have seven films in seven years.  I stopped caring after number three.  I really thought the original was a well thought out horror flick.  It even had decent actors in it (Cary Elwes, Danny Glover, Monica Potter, etc.), although I’m sure none of them probably considered it to be some of their better work.  I even thought the sequel was a worthy effort also, with enough twists and turns to keep you guessing until the end.  The third one, however, showed audiences that the well had run dry.  It was very uneven, and if the producers were interested in keeping the legacy of “Saw” at a decent level that would’ve been the end.  I mean the main character “Jigsaw” died in the third movie, so wouldn’t you think that’s a pretty compelling conclusion to the series?  Of course, as is often the case, money outweighs quality in Hollywood.  So, without further ado, here’s the seventh installment of a tired franchise.

Prediction.

The producers of the “Saw” films must have their sites set on the “Nightmare on Elm Street” franchise.  There were a total of seven “Nightmare” films (not including “Freddy vs. Jason” and the reboot version this past April), and with “Saw 3D” they are now tied.  It will take some perseverance to get to the numbers of “Halloween” and “Friday the 13^th,” but since no one seems to care about putting together a decent script they may very well catch those other two some day soon.  Sequels two through five all made over $30 million during their opening weekend.  Number six, however, dipped badly to $14 million.  3D may help a bit, but with the success of “Paranormal Activity 2” last week, one has to think that audiences have soured on all things “Saw.”  Let’s go with $15 million for the die hards who make it a point of seeing the annual blood fest every Halloween season. 

Opening Weekend Gross: $15 Million

Noodles.

I have to admit to never having seen any of the 'Saw' movies. My horror tastes always lean toward the fun supernatural monster type films like Poltergeist, and less in the slasher variety. That being said ...I think this (hopefully) last Saw movie looks like they went the extra mile for a creative way to tie up the series. 

I like the idea of including the audience in the horror via 3D, although I am curious as to how they will accomplish all that this trailer suggests in the way of making you feel as though you're in danger personally. I'm a little tired of the 3D gimmick but for films like this that are made to exploit the technology I'm a bit more forgiving.

Prediction.

The last 5 previous Saw movies all opened for around $30 Million, except for 'VI' which only did $14M. I have to think that due to the lack of any real competition this weekend and the interesting 3D gimmick that Saw will once again reach its peak numbers.

Opening Weekend: Gross: $30 Million

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Paranormal Activity 2

Director: Tod Williams

Run Time: 1 hour 31 minutes

Rating: R

The Bouw-Man.

From a business standpoint, one can appreciate what “Paranormal Activity” was able to accomplish.  With a slight production budget of just $15,000, the makers used savvy marketing and word of mouth to push its domestic box office to over $100 million (almost $108 million to be exact).  The phenomenon also grew oversees as worldwide it garnered a box office total of over $193 million.  Imagine turning $15,000 into $193 million.  Hard to imagine, isn’t it?  Really make you wonder if low-budget, documentary-style horror films will rule the world very soon when you can produce results like these.

 

Obviously the appeal of the first “Paranormal Activity” film was it appeared to be real.  Movies predicated on horror and thrills can draw in audience if people think this actually happened.  Whether “Paranormal Activity 2” will have the same effect, is anyone’s guess.  I’m fearful that they’re going to keep making one “Paranormal Activity” film after another (just like the “Saw” franchise), until the material is as thin as paper.  When you’re able to make films that can produce this type of payday from such a low budget, you can bet they will try to capitalize on this good fortune until the well has run dry.  If you do go see “Paranormal Activity 2,” expect a lot of scary tones coupled with people from the audience yelling whenever a ghost-related figure appears on screen.  That’s what the trailer promises, with its security camera-type footage.

Prediction.

Well, last weekend people came out in droves to see the latest “Jackass” film to the tune of almost $59 million.  Obviously, today’s audience doesn’t want to think too much when they head out to the movies.  “Paranormal Activity 2” should be solid this week, despite the competition from “Jackass 3D”  Expect somewhere in the neighborhood of $35 million for its opening weekend total.    

Opening Weekend Gross: $35 Million

Noodles.

Is it just me or are the trailers for these kinds of "reality" based horror films better when they show you less. I feel like the first movie's trailer made me want to watch the film more by showing how freaked the audience was watching it. You didn't know what to expect and that made you more inclined to go. With this new trailer some of the effects are shown, and I think it ruins the anticipation a little. Think about how freaky it was to see that guy's back hurling at the camera for the first time in the theater. Its a shocking scary moment, that would have been slightly diminished had you known they were going there ahead of time. Not to mention the other stunts like the chick getting dragged by invisible hands looks better when you have the tension set up by 40 minutes of suspense before you see it.

Prediction.

While this kind of movie doesn't stir anything in me to want to run out and go see it, I know that there are millions of fans that will. The early reviews brand this sequel as an excellent follow up to the original so I think that so close to Halloween its going to do very well. Jackass 3D will still win the weekend, but Paranormal Activity 2 will come in at a strong second.

Opening Weekend: Gross: $22 Million

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Let Me In

Director: Matt Reeves

Run Time: 1 Hour 55 Minutes

Rating: R

The Bouw-Man.

Well, I guess someone figured there just weren’t enough films centered around vampires these days.  Seriously, is there anyone else as annoyed as me that seemingly every new book, television show and movie produced these days has something to do with vampires?  Who are these people living their lives in a fantasy world of fangs and blood?  If you let your child dress as a vampire this Halloween, don’t come to my house in the pursuit of candy.  I will reserve my treats for the kids who chose to go as Shrek, Iron Man, SpongeBob or any other real or mythical character that is not a vampire in nature.

 

With “Let Me In” we have another low budget horror flick, with a favorable risk/reward for the film’s producers.  Chloe Moretz seems to be the next big thing among child actors after her successful turns in “(500) Days of Summer,” “Diary of a Wimpy Kid” and most notably “Kick-Ass.”  She’s linked to seven additional films scheduled for release over the next two years, so I guess she now replaces Abigail Breslin as the young girl occupying all the good roles.  Richard Jenkins also stars in “Let Me In” as the father, which bothers me to some degree.  At age 63, he is now as relevant as ever.  However, after his Oscar-caliber performance in “Eat Pray Love,” it would’ve been nice to see him follow it up with another solid drama or comedy.

Prediction.

The “R-rating” won’t help “Let Me In” attract the important teenage demographic.  You also have to wonder if the adult market is really going to come out to see a horror film with two kids as the main characters.  I’m going to predict that there is too much competition out there for “Let Me In” to enjoy a solid opening.  $9.5 million sounds like a suitable total for opening weekend.

Opening Weekend Gross: $9.5 Million

Noodles.

'Let Me In' strikes me as an intriguing twist on the conventional vampire story. I'm always a fan of movies that make children into the villain anyway, so this seems right up my alley. The trailer makes it seem like its not only a good horror premise but there is the suspense angle mixed with the classic tale of a weak kid made strong by a powerful ally. 

What the creators did here was make a trailer that creates questions that only the full movie can answer, and I want those answers. What turned a little girl into a vampire? Who is her pet human and why is he in a garbage bag suit? Does she turn her new "friend" into a vampire by the end? I have to admit to kind of looking forward to checking this one out.

Prediction.

This film doesn't boast a lot of star power, but on a weekend devoid of any real exciting competition it could do better than average. If 'Vampires Suck' can rake in $12 Million this movie with its compelling concept should almost double that number.

Opening Weekend: Gross: $21 Million

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Case 39

Director: Christian Alvart

Run Time: 1 Hour 49 Minutes

Rating: R

The Bouw-Man.

I see a lot of films on a first-run basis at the theater.  Never did I once see a trailer for “Case 39” in all my trips.  That’s not a good sign.  Renée Zellweger has never been one of my favorite actresses, but she has some appeal on a mass scale.  Bradley Cooper is also continuing to gain popularity, so it doesn’t say much in terms of quality that they have kept this movie pretty much under wraps with little to no marketing or advertising.  Remember last year’s “All About Steve?”  Ironically, that film also starred the aforementioned Bradley Cooper.  “All About Steve” was the one “black eye” on Sandra Bullock’s 2009 year.  It was so awful that they kept delaying the release date.  It finally came out in September, when Bullock’s name recognition was starting to hit an all-time high.  Ultimately it didn’t help much, because the film itself was garbage.

 

Similarly, “Case 39” has been on the shelf for a long time.  It was shot back in 2006, and was originally set for a 2008 summer release date.  Well, what does it say now that the film is coming out in October of 2010?  I’m assuming it would’ve gone straight to DVD, if not for Zellweger and Cooper.  The trailer isn’t bad, but it’s nothing special either.  There’s have been a lot of horror films made about “special” or “gifted” children, so this is likely to add nothing new.  The only real question contrived from the preview, is whether the child’s abuse is justified or not based on the situation.  That’s definitely not enough to warrant paying the price of a ticket, so I guess I’ll have to live without knowing the answer.  I’m guessing I’m not alone in that regard.

Prediction.

There’s already another horror film centered on children this exact same weekend, so you have to question the timing of releasing the film now.  I mean, you waited this long, so why not wait a little longer?  Maybe the powers that be think it’s a stinker no matter what, so what’s the difference at this point.  I think a $5 million opening weekend would make the producers ecstatic, but I can’t see “Case 39” hitting even that goal.  $2.5 million is an appropriate opening weekend total for a film of this magnitude. 

Opening Weekend Gross: $2.5 Million

Noodles.

There are 38 horror movies that sucked this year...This is 39. As much as the trailer for 'Let Me In' pulled at my curiosity and made me want to see it. This film feels like a hamfisted phony, playing at being suspenseful and scary. The fast cuts and stylish edits are there to fool you into thinking that the film will have chilling action sequences. I feel like its a dud waiting to happen. 

I also have a pet peeve with trailers that leave it unclear what the menace of the film is. Is the  little girl evil? Do demons follow her around? Is it ghosts like in 'Poltergeist'? Wizards? What the hell is so scary? Just say, "the Demons are following her", and I'm satisfied as to what kind of horror film I'm watching. This has all the trappings of a twist ending where we find out the little girl is dosing everyone around her with peyote, and then setting them up to get killed. If that's the case with this film I'm going to be so pissed.

Prediction.

I can't remember the last Renee Zellweger flick that tore down any records at the box office. Granted, horror films have a draw despite the star in the lead role, but with another more intriguing film coming out this weekend I think this one is going to tank.

Opening Weekend: Gross: $7 Million

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The Last Exorcism

 Run Time: 1 hrs. 40 min.

Rating: PG-13

The Bouw-Man.

There are few items as scary as exorcism, so it’s not surprising that Hollywood keeps producing a variety of heart-thumping pictures on the subject.  Pretty soon I expect to see nothing but trailers of films about vampires and exorcisms.  In this latest version, we have an evangelistic minister traveling to a small Louisiana town to perform yet another exorcism (preview indicates that he has performed over 47).  A long the way he is warned by the local townspeople that he should “walk away” from this one.  I can’t think of a more deliberate statement then when one young man proclaims, “You’re going to make a U-turn.  Then I want you to go back where you came from,” when the reverend asks for directions.  Yes, it appears this latest exorcism will be his most profound one to date.  Anything less would not be true scary movie material.

 

“The Last Exorcism” is shot documentary style to give a more realistic impression to what is transpiring.  This form of film-making for the horror/thriller genre was made famous by the independent hit, “The Blair Witch Project” in 1999.  More recently, we have seen this from 2009’s “Paranormal Activity.”  Apparently if you have a light budget and no stars in your scary film, documentary style is the way to go.  It’s still inconceivable to me that “The Blair Witch Project” took in a domestic gross of $140 million, when it cost just $60,000 to produce. “Paranormal Activity” was just as impressive with a domestic gross of nearly $108 million, and a production budget of just $15,000.

Prediction.

Bottom line, the preview is really well made.  With the possessed sibling bending all parts of her body in every direction, even the most resilient viewer probably had to look away.  People like to be scared, and this one seems as good as any to accomplish that feat.  $28 million as a starting point for its first weekend gross.    

Opening Weekend Gross: $28 Million

Noodles.

The Last Exorcism is not my cup of tea. That said, I think it looks like it could be a decent film if you're into this kind of picture. Eli Roth lends some of his horror movie credit so you would hope he wouldn't just attach himself to a piece of trash. However, I would be nervous going in  due to the PG-13 rating. You can't tell me that demonic possession is a subject that most kids are chomping at the bit to go see. This movie seems made for a more mature viewer, and yet can I assume it will be tame enough to watch with my 13 year old? Do I want to watch another toothless horror picture? 

Prediction.

Horror can be a big draw and if I had to bet my last dime whether this movie would open huge or not, it would be hard to take that bet. The film seems unremarkable to me but since its not in my wheelhouse I usually misjudge the public reaction. Since I have to make a prediction I'm going to say it wins the weekend and makes 25 Million.

Opening Weekend: Gross: $25 Million

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