Knight and Day

Director: James Mangold

Run Time: 2 Hrs. 10 Minutes

Rating: PG-13

The Bouw-Man.

A lot of things seemed to pop in my head when I took a look at this action comedy, but very little had to do with the picture itself.  If this film was made five to ten years ago, you could chalk up at least a $100 million haul and it being one of the bright spots of the summer season.  However, that was then and this is today.  The main reason for the uncertainty of this film’s success is Tom Cruise.  Used to be Tom Cruise could star in any old film, and it was instantly successful.  Don’t believe me?  Well, then you have a short memory.  “Collateral,” “The Last Samurai,” “Minority Report,” “Vanilla Sky” “War of the Worlds” were all Tom Cruise vehicles (no pun intended) that hit the $100 million plateau (“War of the Worlds” actually made over $200 million) over the last ten years.  None would be considered Oscar-caliber films, but Cruise’s star power was the key. 

 

Now, here we sit in 2010 and it’s apparent how much Hollywood has changed.  Of the top ten grossing films of the year, only two (“Shutter Island” and “Valentine’s Day”) are not either animated, a sequel or a remake.  Hence, Hollywood is becoming more reluctant to make original films for adult audiences starring “A-list” actors.  What makes this even more curious is that two of the biggest box office draws of the 21^st century, Cruise and Adam Sandler, are opening films during the same week.  With “Toy Story 3” opening last weekend and another “Twilight” on the way for the 4^th of July, there isn’t a big window of opportunity for “Knight and Day.”  The producers sensing this even moved up the film’s start date a couple of days to Wednesday, July 23.  Most likely this was to free itself from the competition and make it the “talk of the town,” if only for two days.

Prediction.

I think “Knight and Day” will do OK, but nothing compared to what a Tom Cruise film used to fetch at the box office.  The landscape has changed in Hollywood, and Cruise has just turned off too many fans that now have no interest in seeing him in anything.  A film similar to this one, “Killers,” came out three weeks ago to a $16 million opening.  This one does look a lot better, and Cruise and Diaz (yes, she’s in this film also) are still more marketable than Kutcher and Heigl.  So, let’s give “Knight and Day” $10 million more than “Killers” to put it at $26 million.     

Opening Weekend Gross: $26 Million

Noodles.

Now this is the Tom Cruise I used to get excited about watching on the big screen. Yes, this is a plot that seems to have gotten a real workout lately; see Killers...or don't. However, it looks like if you can forgive some of the more cliche' action movie gimmicks (shooting gas tanks for big explosions, pithy banter while doing amazing stunts) this could be a pretty good popcorn movie. 

I liked the over the top stunts. I liked the seemingly non-stop action. I like looking at Cameron Diaz. I even liked when Rodney got shot. If this movie is half as fun as it seems I think they may have a hit on their hands.

Then again, if its one thing doing these reviews every week has taught me, its that studios can sometimes make a lousy trailer, yet produce a decent movie. Its my sincere hope that this is not a reversal of that phenomenon, a great trailer for a lousy movie. At the very least I think this one will get some of my money by the weekend's end.

Prediction.

A few years ago it would have been a foregone conclusion that Tom Cruise + Big Action = $120 Million...Now I'm not so sure. Seems like only 3D cartoon characters are generating that kind of financial heat these days. I think that if any live action movie has a chance to become a true blockbuster this summer, its going to be this one. I want to give it big numbers but in my heart I see high 80s maybe 90 Mill. So I'll split the difference.

Opening Weekend: Gross: $85 Million

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